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Breakfast Bites - Jobs & Sentiment Data coming up
Early reports coming in for Earnings; President Trump's inauguration plans
Ayesha Tariq
January 10, 2025
Rise and shine everyone.
It’s Jobs Friday. That’s what the market will watch today, even though the labor market has now taken a backseat to inflation. This will be another case of “good news is bad news” because if the numbers come in stronger than expected then the Fed has more reasons to hold off on cutting rates. The estimates are coming in at 157k which is quite a bit lower than the previous reading of 227k. Here are the full set of estimates:
Source: Econoday
The upward pressure on the yield curve has marginally eased but the 10Y remains above 4.7%. We will likely need an NFP print around the 100k market to see a significant pullback in the 10Y. We’re also thinking that a jump in the unemployment rate could move the needle. However, the recent JOLTS data continues to show a rather resilient labor market.
UST 10Y-2Y Yield Curve
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