Shifting Sands - Global Outlook for 2025

Dear all,

We are pleased to present our Global Outlook for 2025.

Please feel free to download or share it. If you’d like to view an online version, please click on the picture below.

Our theme for the year is “Shifting Sands”.

When we think about all the factors that may play out in 2025, we are left with a heightened sense of uncertainty stemming from the many changes ahead of us. Both in terms of fiscal policy implementation, the resulting macro effects, and the monetary policy responses to that.

We enter 2025 with a backdrop of changes that have left us wondering about the path for next year.

2024 came with its own share of surprises, many of which were changes to leadership around the world. We saw over 60% of the world’s GDP have some sort of electoral event, resulting in shifts of power.

With a change in government comes changes in policies. The US takes the cake when it comes to that. With Trump back in the White House, we’re in for unpredictable times, to say the least. Given the extent and severity of proposed policies, the burden will fall on the rest of the world to respond accordingly.

We made a number of predictions in our Outlook for 2024 - some we got right, and some we didn’t. Predicting what could happen over the course of a year is never an easy task, and yet it’s a task that we, as macro analysts, have to undertake. While it may be daunting, it’s also extremely fun! Trying to think through what could happen, given what we already know, is a very interesting exercise.

We hope you enjoy reading our outlook, as much as we have enjoyed writing it!

Here’s to finishing 2024 on a high note, and hoping that 2025 brings us all peace and prosperity.