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Breakfast Bites - Euro Area avoids a recession

China 10Y yields fall to 22 year low; CN & HK market declines; Germany also avoids a technical recession; US Treasury lowers funding estimate

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Macro Visor
January 30, 2024

Rise and shine everyone.

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high yesterday after the US Treasury announced a lower-than-expected overall funding requirement. The Treasury is expected to borrow $760B vs $816B prior estimate during the Jan-Mar 2024 quarter and $202B vs. $410B prior estimate in the Apr-Jun quarter. That’s a total reduction of $264B, assuming an end-of-quarter cash balance of $750B. The cash balance is currently higher at $769B. Lower rates and relatively higher tax receipts have lowered the borrowing need. However, it’s important to remember, that the Treasury often revises their borrowing needs so this may not be the final take.

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